Your flip only works if the numbers do. If your ARV is inflated or your rehab budget is off, the deal collapses before it starts.
At Crebrid, we see hundreds of flip deals a month. The ones that move fast and fund without friction? They get their numbers right up front.
Here’s how to evaluate ARV and rehab the way real operators do it:
1. Run Comps Within a Tight Radius
Start with sold comps—not listings. Look at properties within a 0.5-mile radius, sold in the last 3–6 months. Match them for square footage, bed/bath count, year built, and lot size.
You’re not looking for the highest sale. You’re looking for the most realistic one.
Pro tip: Avoid using homes with major upgrades your subject property won’t have. If the comp has a pool and your flip won’t—throw it out.
2. Walk the Property Like a Buyer
Don’t guess the rehab from the photos. Show up. Walk the property with a contractor or take detailed notes for a scope of work.
You’re looking for:
- Structural issues
- Electrical/plumbing condition
- Roof, windows, and foundation
- Layout changes or load-bearing walls
- Anything that could blow your budget mid-flip
3. Build a Line-Item Budget
A single rehab number isn’t enough. Break it down room by room or category by category:
- Demo
- Framing
- Flooring
- Kitchen/bath
- HVAC
- Paint and exterior
- Permits and dumpster fees
Your budget should be detailed enough that another investor could pick it up and run the same project.
4. Validate ARV With Before + After
Pair each comp with a “before and after” analysis. If a comp sold for $450K after a full gut—what did it look like before? Was it similar to your subject property’s starting point?
If your flip starts in better or worse shape, adjust accordingly. The more honest you are here, the safer your margin.
5. Add Contingency. Always.
Things go wrong. Prices spike. Surprises happen. Add a contingency line to your rehab budget—usually 10–15%—and protect your deal from getting derailed.
It’s not about padding. It’s about control.
Getting ARV and rehab right isn’t about perfection—it’s about precision. Run the numbers with discipline, and you’ll spot better deals, make faster offers, and avoid the kind of mistakes that eat into your profit.
The better your inputs, the smoother the exit.
